With the NBA season little more than 24 hours away, OFD wanted to publish our current best bets for the season to come, at least with over/under wins. Rachel and I will be updating everyone on how these bets are going through the season – so watch for my bragging or her getting mad at my terrible projections.
OVER:
OKC 32.5 (-115)
While I wasn’t sure about the Thunder back during previews season, the fact that Chris Paul looks likely to stay in OKC for the year means that this over has become an excellent value. Paul, Steven Adams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Danilo Galinari are a core that should be able to win around 35 wins in the West, and Paul’s legendary competitiveness will drive the team in the 4th quarter. While Russ and PG may be gone, there’s still a gambling diamond in the rough in Oklahoma.
MIA 43.5 (-125)
I find it hard to believe that a team that added Jimmy Butler (and subtracted Hassan Whiteside) won’t be significantly better than last year. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are great young players, and Justice Winslow and Goran Dragic continue to be consummate leaders. Don’t discount the possibility of a trade for a point guard to push the Heat higher. Plus, they are in the East. The East sucks – and Miami will end up with between 45-48 wins this year.
TOR 48.5 (-115)
This is my favorite 2019-2020 NBA over/under bet. Yes, the champions did lose Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, but they are still talented and competitive, especially in a diminished East. I expect Pascal Siakam to continue to step forward and be voted an all-star this year – in addition, veterans like Marc Gasol, Kyle Lowry, and Serge Ibaka want one more run at a conference finals. Are the Raptors going to repeat as champions? No. Are they going to reach 50 wins? Well – I put my money on it.
UNDER:
MIN 35.5 (-115)
Sorry, when Andrew Wiggins is arguably your second-best player (hint; it’s clearly Robert Covington), you’re not winning 35 games in this Western Conference. While Karl-Anthony Towns is a special talent, he seems to be on an island in the land of 10,000 Lakes. I like Jarrett Culver as a young piece, and Towns should repeat as an all-star, but this feels to me like a 32-50 team.
NYK 28 (-125)
I’ve written many angry words about the Knicks – but the one real pleasure of being a Knicks fan these days is aligning your financial interests with what will happen (a lot of loss). RJ Barrett is promising, but the Knicks are made up of overrated former lottery point guards (Payton and Smith Jr.), Wing gunners (Knox and Barrett) and a lot of power forwards (Randle, Morris, Portis, Gibson, oh my god I’m going to be sick). This team is bad – 28 wins feels like way too many. Sell the team, James.
PHX 29.5 (-110)
Sorry, did I miss something? Why are we suddenly expecting the Suns to win 30 games? Robert Sarver fiercely competes with Dolan as worst owner in American sports – who can forget the time he brought goats into his office to make a point; they proceeded to shit literally everywhere. Devin Booker is complaining about double teams during summer runs, DeAndre Ayton is still bad at defense, and they took the most absurd lottery pick of the decade this draft. Sarver’s office will continue to be a metaphor for the Suns.
