With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Miami Heat
Conference: Eastern
Wins O/U: 42.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Last Year’s Record: 39-43
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): B. Adebayo*, J. Butler*, G. Dragic*, U. Haslem, T. Herro, J. Johnson*, D. Jones Jr., M. Leonard, K. Nunn, K. Okpala, K. Olynyk, D. Robinson, D. Waiters, J. Winslow*
Key Offseason Moves: Traded J. Richardson and H. Whiteside for M. Leonard and J. Butler, D. Wade Retired, Drafted T. Herro and K. Okpala
Overall Summary: A star shooting guard retires, and another comes in. Jimmy Butler is no Dwayne Wade (to be fair, few players are), but he gives Miami another alpha dog. Butler ironically comes after playing in Philly, a grinding, tough city, moving to Miami, glitz and glamour. However, the Sixers were a team of stars, with Embiid and Simmons leading the way – and the post-Lebron Heat are known for their hard work and stamina, fitting perfectly with Butler’s blue-collar game. Elsewhere on the roster, trading Hassan Whiteside seems like addition by subtraction, as I believe Bam Adebayo is a better center. Draft Pick Tyler Herro “is a bucket” and will shoot from anywhere, giving the Heat an ace shooter in the backcourt. Moreover, for a team not in the upper echelon of championship contenders, the Heat have excellent depth. Guys like Dion Waiters, Herro, Derrick Jones Jr. and Kelly Olynyk will provide solid bench minutes, and are all capable 3-point shooters. Finally, the Heat have one of the steadiest infrastructures in the league, which should help in integrating Butler easily. Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra have been running this Heat team for over a decade, and have kept the Heat in or near the playoffs every year – a streak I expect to continue this season.
Verdict: Take the over. With Butler, the Heat look solidly like a playoff team to me, and I expect them to win somewhere in the mid-40s this season. Herro was an excellent pick late in the lottery, and he will contribute immediately in a scoring role off the bench. The East is even weaker than last season, and Miami has an advantage that Vegas doesn’t seem to have accounted for – the fact that opposing players are more likely in Miami than any other NBA city to sample the nightlife scene – potentially tiring them out. I project a record of 45-37.
