With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
Conference: Western
Wins O/U: 31.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Last Year’s Record: 49-33
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): S. Adams*, D. Bazley, D. Burton, H. Diallo, L. Dort, T. Ferguson*, D. Galinari*, S. Gilgeous-Alexander*, M. Muscala, A. Nader, N. Noel, J. Patton, C. Paul*, A. Roberson, D. Schroder
Key Offseason Moves: Traded P. George for S. Gilgeous-Alexander and D. Galinari, Traded R. Westbrook for C. Paul, Traded J. Grant, Drafted D. Bazley, Signed M. Muscala
Overall Summary: While other franchises might have had big departures, and big signings, no team completely had its core changed like the Oklahoma City Thunder. They traded away three of their four best players from last season, including franchise icon and former MVP Russell Westbrook and the 3rd place MVP finisher in 2019, Paul George. They also traded forward Jerami Grant to the Nuggets. The Thunder, as a result, are far more future-focused than looking at the present. Chris Paul is a future Hall-of-Famer, and Danilo Galinari is coming off of his finest NBA season, but both are on the wrong side of 30 and not part of OKC’s future, so don’t be shocked if OKC tries to trade one or both this season. Besides the absolute bounty of draft picks obtained in the Westbrook, George and Grant trades, the other blue-chipper OKC received was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA, as he’s known, was a rarity – a starting rookie point guard on a playoff team. He has outrageous upside due to his long frame, shooting mechanics, and court vision, and will be another young and athletic point guard for Sam Presti to build a team around. While this offseason will result in a huge step back on the court, the Thunder are actually far better positioned to be a contender in the 2020s than at this time last year.
Verdict: I think the over is actually a pretty good bet. Gilgeous-Alexander and Galinari are better than people think, and Chris Paul will have this team competing every single night. While they have little top-end talent, I also don’t think they are one of the worst teams in the league. The one thing to be careful about is the fact that this line is different on different books – in fact, I’ve seen it everywhere from 30.5 to 34.5 – so check what the over/under is before you place a bet. I project a record of 34-48.
