Throughout this winter, OFD will be looking at some of the positive surprises and disappointments among teams this NBA season. Now that the calendar has turned to February, OFD will be looking at the teams that haven’t quite met expectations.
It was the day before Thanksgiving, November 27th, 2019. The Timberwolves stepped off the floor in San Antonio having beaten the Spurs to move to 10-8 for the year. With Andrew Wiggins looking more like the player who was promised and Karl-Anthony Towns looking like an early MVP candidate with his obscenely efficient offensive game, the Timberwolves looked poised to perhaps steal one of the lower seeds in the West playoffs. Well, it’s now February 6th, 2020, and that San Antonio game represents the TWolves’ last win with Towns on the floor. What happened?!?!
Now sitting at 15-35, the Timberwolves have gone from playoff hopeful to lottery lock. For a team with postseason dreams, winning 5 games in December and January combined is downright embarrassing. They’ve also traded 2 of their opening day starting lineup, with Jeff Teague and now Robert Covington elsewhere in the league.
While Towns’ injuries have been a big part of the Timberwolves struggles, the center is accountable for many of the issues too. Towns returned 11 games ago, and the Timberwolves haven’t achieved victory since, with their losing streak now reaching 13. Towns is undoubtedly one of the best offensive weapons in the league, with the Timberwolves ranking top-10 in offensive efficiency when he is on the floor, versus the worst rated offense while he sits. However, his offensive gifts are offset by his putrid defense. When Minnesota plays without Towns, it is one of the best defensive teams in the league – when he is in the middle, the Wolves are the worst. At a position like center, these type of struggles make it hard for your team to consistently win.
So what’s next? It’s pretty clear that this isn’t the core of anything more than a mediocre team. When Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Minnesota, it was easy to paint him as the bad guy, as a malcontent, for saying that Wiggins and Towns were soft and would never win big games. A little more than a year later, it’s pretty clear that Butler was right. Andrew Wiggins is on one of the worst contracts in the entire NBA; this alone precludes a true rebuild while he is on the books.
After the Covington trade, where the Timberwolves gained a few young assets and picks, it’s hard to see what moves will be next. The Wolves lusted after D’Angelo Russell over the summer before the young guard went to Golden State. With Towns and Russell having a well-known, close relationship, it makes sense that Minnesota would pursue such a move to keep their big man happy. But would a move like that, where they are sure to have to give up draft capital, be best for the future of the team?
On the other hand, an obvious path to a rebuild isn’t quite clear either. Teams like New Orleans and Memphis have blue-chippers, future All-NBA type talents. Whatever you think of Towns, his defensive liabilities make it unlikely that he can be the best player on a championship team. While Jarrett Culver was a nice pick who has kept improving this season, he’s clearly no Zion Williamson nor Ja Morant. While the Timberwolves seem likely to have a top pick in the draft this year, this is one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory, so a blue-chipper seems unlikely.
Whatever the path forward is for Minnesota, the present is murky and full of struggles. I’m counting pushing everyone to bet the under here a win. Sadly, that’s as many wins as Minnesota has had over the last 30 days.
