The 92nd Academy Awards are being held this Sunday February 9th and I’m very excited. I officially have seen all the movies nominated for Best Picture (and more of course) and feel ready to have my heart broken. This is one of the best movie years in a long time – there are a lot of really good films up for awards this year with incredible movie stars that will make for a great red carpet.
As a reminder the ballots for the Oscars are done by way of “preferential voting” which is to say that if no movie receives a 50% majority, the movie with the fewest first place votes will be removed and the second place vote will be redistributed. This will continue until one movie eventually receives 50% of the votes. This means that theoretically if everyone voted Parasite second and there were a large spread of number 1 picks but none added up to 50%, then Parasite could win. It is a bit confusing but it makes a huge difference. Just for fun, this would be my preferential ballot (you’ll see that my alignment of who I want to win is very correlated to this): 1. Parasite, 2. 1917, 3. Marriage Story, 4. Little Women, 5. Ford v Ferrari, 6. Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, 7. Jojo Rabbit, 8. Joker, 9. The Irishman.
I split up all the categories into three sections (major awards, technical and documentary/animated/short). I’ll have far more to say in the Major awards category as I feel I understand those better and can speak more accurately on their merits. Next will be the technical categories – here I definitely have opinions based on how I felt while watching those movies but am less knowledgeable here. Lastly the Documentary/Animated/Short categories – I have not seen most of these films and thus will have significantly less to say here.
Let’s get into some predictions. I’ll first remind you of all the nominees, predict who I think will win and then mention who I actually want to win.
Major Awards
Best Picture
Nominees: Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Who I Think Will Win: If we’re doing this by process of elimination, there are some obvious ones to get rid of: Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, Marriage Story, and probably The Irishman, despite its 11 nominations. The other four movies just don’t have the momentum from the Globes, SAGs, BAFTAs, etc. nor the support in the Oscars nominations to give them any real shot at winning. That leaves us with Joker, Parasite, 1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Joker may have attracted a large swath of nominations at the Oscars, but their lack of success at the other award shows so far eliminates them as well. I personally think 1917 will win. The other real contender here is Parasite, having won Best Ensemble at the SAG awards, a historic predictor for Best Picture winner, and a win that was especially important given that Parasite did not achieve any acting nominations. However, the 1917 and Sam Mendes awards love has been overwhelming, with the movie winning Best Drama at the Globes and Mendes winning Best Director at the Directors Guild awards.
Who I Want To Win: I want Parasite to win. Although 1917 was one of my favorite movies of the year, Parasite was my favorite movie of the year. It made my top movies of the decade list and I have written extensively on my love for the movie. 1917 feels like very Obvious Oscar movie bait and as good as it was, we’ve all seen a gritty war movie before, plus a Parasite win would be historic.
Best Director
Nominees: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Todd Phillips (Joker), Sam Mendes (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Who I Think Will Win: All signs are pointing to Sam Mendes for 1917. His innovation with the one-shot style has been heralded as completely unique and has made for a thrilling movie. Some have called it a bit gimmicky, but a gimmick that certainly works.
Who I Want To Win: I want Sam Mendes to win for 1917. I loved this movie and found the style of filmmaking to be gripping and fresh. Only twice in the last 10 years has a Director that won for Best Director not correlated into the movie being crowned Best Picture, so it’s likely that if Mendes wins, 1917 will win Best Picture. Which I won’t be mad about per se, but I will be sad if Parasite only comes away with Best Foreign Language Film.
Best Actor
Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Who I Think Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix is pretty much a lock for this award for his work in Joker, making him the second actor to portray the Joker to win an Oscar; the other of course being the iconic, and in my opinion, superior, Joker performance by Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. Actors still make up a majority of the voting body of the Academy and actors freaking love this performance.
Who I Want To Win: I want Adam Driver to win for Marriage Story. It’s going to be so frustrating if Driver is one of those performers the Academy makes wait until they’re significantly older then give him an award for a movie that wasn’t even his best performance just because they deemed it was finally “time” (cc: Leonardo Dicaprio’s win for Revenant instead of Titanic). Driver had an absolutely all-star year, delivering a heart-wrenching performance in Marriage Story, being the best part of an otherwise just okay movie in Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker for his layered portrayal of Kylo Ren, and getting to show off more range and channel more of his own personality in his performance in The Report. Let’s celebrate Driver: an actor at the top of his game, because he deserves it. Quick shoutout to Jonathan Pryce, because I thought he carried the entire movie in The Two Popes and was utterly captivating.
Best Actress
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), Charlize Theron (Bombshell), Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Who I Think Will Win: Renee Zellweger is going to win for Judy, which is SO boring. I still don’t know anyone who has seen this movie. I don’t know why it was seemingly unanimously decided that Zellweger was going to win since the second it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival, but here we are.
Who I Want To Win: Please swerve like what happened last year where Glenn Close was the Renee Zellweger, sweeping all award shows and supposedly guaranteed to win the Oscar before it was actually awarded to Olivia Colman for The Favourite. Give this award to Saorise Ronan for Little Women… I would also like Scarlett Johannson for Marriage Story, but I really want Saoirse to win. She’s been nominated 5 times already and she’s just 25 years old. She’s an incredibly talent and I don’t want her have the same fate as Driver in the “we’ll award you when we think its ‘time’” group. Ronan portrayed a real, grounded Jo in Little Women, giving her own twist to a classic character and keeping the screen crackling through her chemistry with the rest of the cast, especially Laurie (Timothee Chalamet) and Amy (Florence Pugh).
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Who I Think Will Win: Brad Pitt. Lock it in.
Who I Want To Win: If anyone but Brad Pitt wins this award I will riot. Give me charming awards Brad Pitt forever.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell), Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Who I Think Will Win: Laura Dern will be accepting the Oscar for her performance as the bitchy, successful, intelligent, compassionate, chic-AF lawyer (I might’ve just described my mother) in Marriage Story. Can’t wait.
Who I Want To Win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story. While I loved Pugh and Robbie’s performances, Dern’s assertive yet charming performance in Marriage Story was entertaining while also giving important advice to women everywhere. Just realized in writing this that the three movies that focus on women in power (or finding their power), (Bombshell, Little Women, Marriage Story) probably will not fare well at the Oscars… I wonder….
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Steven Zaillian (The Irishman), Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit), Todd Phillips & Scott Silver (Joker), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Anthony McCarten (The Two Popes)
Who I Think Will Win: After the BAFTAs, the general consensus seems to be that Taika Waititi is going to win for JoJo Rabbit, which I can’t say I personally agree with. I would’ve thought they might give it to Joker or The Irishman here since it’s unlikely that either will win for Best Picture or Director. However, if I had to place a bet on one of those three, I think I’d still go with Jojo Rabbit… groupthink is powerful.
Who I Want To Win: Give Greta Gerwig the freaking Oscar. She was snubbed in the Best Director category and has no shot at winning Best Picture, so please respect a master at work at reward her for her ingenious reimagining of a very well-known story that has already been told multiple times on screen. Her version is completely unique and deserved to be rewarded.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: Rian Johnson (Knives Out), Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns (1917), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Bong Joon-ho & Jin Won Han (Parasite)
Who I Think Will Win: Based on other award shows and the probability that he will not win Best Director, I’m pretty sure Tarantino has this locked up for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. There’s a small possibility Bong sneaks in here for Parasite but it would be pretty surprising.
Who I Want To Win: This might be one of the most stacked categories. I’m so happy to see Rian Johnson here because his sharp wit in Knives Out is a huge part of what made it such an international phenomenon. But I think I’m really torn between Baumbach and Bong for this. Yes, I loved Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but I connected to Marriage Story and Parasite so much more. I’d be happy with either of them winning but if I had to pick one it would be Bong for Parasite – his combination of thrill, horror, entertainment, comedy and social commentary was masterful.
Best Cinematography
Nominees: Rodrigo Prieto (The Irishman), Lawrence Sher (Joker), Jarin Blaschke (The Lighthouse), Roger Deakins (1917), Robert Richardson (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Who I Think Will Win: This might be the most locked of locks this Oscars race: Deakins will be taking home his second Oscar. You could say that Mendes owes much of the success of 1917 to Deakins and you’d probably be right.
Who I Want To Win: I’m definitely on the Roger Deakins train – the man is a legend and continued to show how masterful he is at his craft with legendary work on 1917.
Best International Film
Nominees: Jan Komasa (Corpus Christi), Tamara Kotevska & Ljubo Stefanov (Honeyland), Ladj Ly (Les Miserables), Pedro Almodovar (Pain & Glory), Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite)
Who I Think Will Win: While I feel bad for Les Miserables, Honeyland and Pain & Glory, as they may not come away with awards and I heard they were wonderful movies, the only answer here is Parasite.
Who I Want To Win: Parasite, duh.
Technical Categories
Best Film Editing
Nominees: Michael McCusker & Andrew Buckland (Ford v Ferrari), Thelma Schoonmaker (The Irishman), Tom Eagles (Jojo Rabbit), Jeff Groth (Joker), Jinmo Yang (Parasite)
My Prediction: The Irishman has emerged as the frontrunner in this category, and since I’m not a pro in this category, I’ll go with that. A lot of people think that if 1917 doesn’t win this, its chances of Best Picture could be lower than expected.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees: Don Sylvester (Ford v Ferrari), Alan Robert Murray (Joker), Oliver Tarney & Rachel Tate (1917), Wylie Statement (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Matthew Wood & David Acord (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker)
My Prediction: In this scenario, who I think will win and who I want to win line up with Ford v Ferrari, a movie that has received a lot of praise for the sound effects that made the races feel so real. I’d love to see Ford v Ferrari win in this technical category.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees: Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Joker, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Prediction: Both Ford v Ferrari and 1917 are movies that you have to see in theaters because of how visceral all the effects were and I assume this award will go to one of these. Usually, a Best Picture winner gains some technical awards to build momentum for its eventual win so I’m going to predict 1917 winning here, assuming Ford v Ferrari is going to win Sound Editing.
Best Production Design
Nominees: Bob Shaw & Regina Graves (The Irishman), Ra Vincent & Nora Sopkova (Jojo Rabbit), Dennis Gassner & Lee Sandales (1917), Barbara Ling & Nancy Haigh (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, & Cho Hee (Parasite)
My Prediction: I mean every single thing we see in Parasite, from the outrageously modern mansion to the dirty streets of Seoul, was created by the Production design team. Incredible work that I think will be rewarded at the Oscars, however wouldn’t be shocked if the Once Upon a Time in Hollywood team won either for their re-creation of 1969 Hollywood.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Hildur Guðnadóttir (Joker), Alexandre Desplat (Little Women), Randy Newman (Marriage Story), Thomas Newman (1917), John Williams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker)
My Prediction: I definitely think Guðnadóttir will win for Joker based on the Guild awards and Globes, but I still hope its Randy Newman for Marriage Story.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4), “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman), “I’m Standing With You” (Breakthrough), “Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2), “Stand Up” (Harriet)
My Prediction: I still think it’s crazy that neither Beyonce nor Taylor Swift were nominated, if only so that they would show up to the Oscars to draw attention. However, they were not, so I’m gonna go with “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” from Rocketman, which did not achieve any other nominations despite its’ surprising success at the Globes.
Best Makeup and Hair
Nominees: Bombshell, Joker, Judy, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, 1917
My Prediction: If they give this to anyone but Bombshell it’s a crime. Charlize Theron WAS Megyn Kelly. That transformation through makeup was astonishing, so yes my prediction is that Bombshell will win.
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Sandy Powell & Christopher Peterson (The Irishman), Mayes C. Rubeo (Jojo Rabbit), Mark Bridges (Joker), Jacqueline Durran (Little Women), Arianne Phillips (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
My Prediction: Little Women won at the BAFTAs and I’m hoping and making it my prediction that it will win at the Academy Awards as well. Gerwig has talked extensively about how she worked with the costume designers to ensure that the outfits were realistic, but not what you traditionally think of as an 19th century women’s outfit. The movie featured corsets that more accurately portray what a woman like Jo would be hanging out in and playing in every day. This is further evidence that Gerwig continuously tried to remake the wheel during the production of Little Women.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avengers Endgame, The Irishman, 1917, The Lion King, Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker
My Prediction: Although a lot of people were thrown off at first by the de-aging technology in The Irishman, the pioneering and performances still showed through and I think that they will result in an Oscar. This means no big-budget, popular movies (Lion King, Star Wars, Avengers) aka Disney will win an Oscar, but this year I’m okay with that. They just weren’t as good as usual.
Documentaries / Shorts / Animated
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, I Lost My Body, Klaus, Missing Link, Toy Story 4
My Prediction: Missing Link won at the Globes, but the love for Klaus online has been very real, which is interesting given Disney released two franchise movies in Toy Story 4 and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World. I’ll go with Klaus.
Best Animated Short
Nominees: Dcera, Hair Love, Kitbull, Memorable, Sister
My Prediction: The two I’ve seen all over the internet are Sister and Hair Love. The animation for Hair Love is amazing and I’ve seen graffiti of the main girl in New York, which is usually a good sign. Plus it has a great message. I’m going to go with Hair Love.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees: Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar (American Factory), Feras Fayyad (The Cave), Waad Al-Kateab & Edward Watts (For Sama), Tamara Kotevska & Ljubo Stefanov (Honeyland)
My Prediction: Based on the fact that I’ve only heard amazing things about Honeyland and have basically not heard anything about the other movies here, I’m going with Honeyland.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Nominees: Yi Seung-Jun & Gary Byung-Seok Kam (In the Absence), Carol Dysinger (Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone), Kristine Samuelson & John Haptas (Life Overtakes Me), Smriti Mundhra & Sami Khan (St. Louis Superman), Laura Nix (Walk Run Cha-Cha)
My Prediction: I’ve literally never seen or heard of any of these, but the one that sounds most interesting to me is Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone, so I’ll go with that.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees: Meryam Joobeur (Brotherhood), Yves Piat (Nefta Football Club), Marshall Curry (The Neighbors’ Window), Bryan Buckley (Saria), Delphine Girard (A Sister)
My Prediction: I haven’t seen any of these shorts, but I have heard of the Nefta Football Club short, so I’ll take that one.
Summary of Predictions (for the Major / Technical Categories)
- 1917
- Total Nominations: 10
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 4 (Best Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Mixing)
- Joker
- Total Nominations: 11
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 2 (Lead Actor, Original Score)
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- Total Nominations: 10
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 2 (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)
- The Irishman
- Total Nominations: 10
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 2 (Visual Effects, Film Editing)
- Parasite
- Total Nominations: 6
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 2 (International Film, Production Design)
- Marriage Story
- Total Nominations: 6
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Supporting Actress)
- Little Women
- Total Nominations: 6
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Costume Design)
- Jojo Rabbit
- Total Nominations: 6
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
- Ford v Ferrari
- Total Nominations: 4
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Sound Editing)
- Bombshell
- Total Nominations: 3
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Makeup and Hair)
- Rocketman
- Total Nominations: 1
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Original Song)
- Judy
- Total Nominations: 1
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 1 (Lead Actress)
- The Two Popes
- Total Nominations: 3
- How Many I Think They’ll Win: 0
I’m looking forward to seeing how wrong I am! I hope there are more surprises than are currently anticipated. Go Parasite.
