Throughout January, OFD will be looking at some of the positive surprises and disappointments among teams this NBA season. Stay tuned for the next four surprises and then five disappointments over the next couple weeks.
Everyone who knows me knows part of my sports identity is hating Boston teams. Whether it’s Bill Belichick or Alex Cora, we know they are always willing to cheat their way to win. However, I’ve never really hated the Celtics. Perhaps it’s because I dislike the Lakers so ardently, perhaps it’s because I will admit that Paul Pierce is one of my favorite players ever, perhaps it’s because of the classic and wonderful uniform combinations they wear. Further, Kyrie Irving is one of my least favorite players in the NBA, and Kemba Walker, back to his days at UConn, is a tri-state legend. I weirdly found myself sort of rooting for a Boston team this year.
Last year, expectations were sky-high, but a lack of team chemistry and an improved Eastern Conference led to a disappointing year. After losing Kyrie, Al Horford, and Aron Baynes, this team was supposed to step back a little – they were a clear playoff team, but their roster didn’t scream contender.
Boston came into this year with an over/under line of 48.5, and I advised a stay-away, predicting a 48-34 record, which I projected for 4th in the East. There’s a chance they finish in that slot, but that’s only because the top of the East has been better than expected. Boston not only projects for the mid-50s in wins, but also has the 5th best net rating in the league, and second in the East (behind the absurdly dominant Bucks). They look like a real contender to at least make the Eastern Finals.
So how have they done it without their two best players from last year? It starts with Brad Stevens. Without an ego like Kyrie’s on the court, Stevens system predicated on ball movement works better. This has allowed the offense to maintain its top 7 efficiency even without Irving. Kemba has picked up the slack on that end, leading the team in points per game and running the offense like the seasoned operator that he has shown to be. Young scoring wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have also continued to improve, becoming All-Star candidates. Brown in particular has upped his offensive game, becoming a plus rebounder and shooter.
On defense, despite the loss of Horford, Boston has been very competitive. While Walker is small, he fights hard on every possesion. Further, Brown and Tatum have been able to lock down the best players on the opposing team. Of course, the heart of the defense is Marcus Smart, who insists on guarding guys of any size at any position, and he usually succeeds. With this amount of talent on both sides of the ball, the Celtics should scare other teams.
While Milwaukee and Philly are the most talented team in the East, Boston has pleasantly remained ahead of schedule. Brown and Tatum are a great future, but the present is pretty pleasant, at least for the Celtics.
