It’s conference championship week! Time to see who makes the Super Bowl and who goes home just short. The final 4 teams are somewhat of an anomaly in historic terms, as only the Chiefs made the playoffs last season – and interestingly, while there are no division rivalries at stake, both are rematches. Anyway, let’s get to the games.
Titans v Chiefs
Sunday, January 19th, 3:05 EST, CBS
This game features the Super Bowl favorite and the most unlikely conference championship contestant in decades. The Titans have only beaten Belichick and Brady then Lamar Jackson in back to back weeks – while Kansas City flipped a playoff game with 7 touchdowns in 7 drives with what seemed like ease. Momentum, destiny, magic – these are the ephemeral terms that will be used in describing this game.
This pits Andy Reid, always the bridesmaid, but the one who was the main mover in inventing the modern offense, against longtime Patriot player and Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who has made the news lately due to certain proclamations about what he would cut off to win a Super Bowl. Both are loved in their locker room, but Reid isn’t one of the 10 most winningist coaches of all time for no reason – if his clock management doesn’t get in the way, the Chiefs have a coaching advantage.
When the Titans have the ball, expect them to try to get Derrick Henry seriously involved. To say he is on a great run is an understatement – no running back has ever run for 180 yards in three straight games. He destroyed Baltimore’s will last weekend and will look to take advantage of the one weakness of the Chiefs – their rushing defense. While much has been made of Tannehill’s lack of passing yards, he’s been remarkably steady and has three legitimate weapons in AJ Brown, Corey Davis, and Jonnu Smith – if he needs to air it out, he can. On the Chiefs side, look for them to try to force Tannehill to throw – you get the feeling Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu will be everywhere.
When the Chiefs have the ball… well – anything can happen. Mahomes showed his absolute dominance once the second quarter started and the results were absolutely mesmerizing. With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and others, it’s impossible to stop when the offense is clicking – Mahomes is just too good at both diagnosis and accuracy, not to mention the prodigious arm strength or the ability to change his arm angle. The key for the Titans will be getting off the field on third downs, and to do this, they will need to get pressure on Mahomes. While he’s an excellent thrower on the run, you have to give your cornerbacks a chance. With too much time, the Chiefs just can’t be stopped. Look for the Titans to employee some exotic blitz packages to try to overwhelm the sometimes suspect Kansas City line.
OFD Predicts: The Titans run has been magical, but I think it ends in Kansas City. The last two games, they have held the Patriots and Ravens under 15 points, but they won’t be able to do that against the Chiefs. Mahomes and Andy Reid will get their chance at the Lombardi Trophy, because the game script will force Tennessee to move away from Henry, and they aren’t well equipped to win a shootout. Chiefs over Titans 38-21.
Packers v Niners
Sunday, January 19th, 6:35 EST, FOX
The top two seeds in the NFC will meet Sunday in San Francisco, and like the earlier game, there is a clear favorite. After snuffing out the Vikings last week with the defensive line putting all kind of pressure on Kirk Cousins and the Niners running attack wearing Minnesota down, the Niners look headed to another Super Bowl in their storied history. On the other sideline, however, are another storied franchise in the Packers, who have the experienced, Super Bowl winning QB on their side. After a sloppy win over the Seahawks, the Packers will face an uphill battle in trying to reverse the 37-8 Niners blowout back in Week 12.
This game has a lot of interesting coaching subplots. As seen above, head coaches Kyle Shanahan (Niners) and Matt LaFleur (Packers) have worked together for a long time and remain close friends, both learning under Kyle’s legendary dad, Mike Shanahan. Even more funny, Shanahan’s head offensive assistant is… Mike LaFleur, Matt’s brother. It’s safe to say both teams should be familiar with each other’s schemes and play styles.
When the Niners have the ball, look for them to continue to run the ball early in drives. While Shanahan is known for his passing schemes, the zone running style the Niners have succeeded with sets up devastating play action shots later in games. With three-headed RB combo Matt Brieda, Tevin Coleman, and Raheem Mostert, SF won’t have to worry about one getting tired. While wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders have been key at points during this run, the Niners most important player is tight end George Kittle. Whether it’s blocking, catching, or running, Kittle is simply a beast. Look for the Packers defense to focus on him. The strength of the Packers defense is their pass rush, with Za’Darius and Preston Smith having dominated Russell Wilson. That will be key, because the best chance for the Packers in this game will be forcing the sometimes over-aggressive Jimmy Garappolo into sacks and interceptions and keeping the Niners at bay in the passing game.
When the Packers have the ball, four names will stand out for the offense. Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Jimmy Graham will be the main focus, and for good reason. Last week it was these four that propelled the Packers early in the game, and Aaron Rodgers looked more like prime Discount Double Check than at any point in the last few seasons, especially with his passes to Graham and Adams in the final drive (see above). They’ll have to continue to dominate against a really excellent Niners defense. Their defensive line is easily the best in the league, with Nick Bosa blossoming into a superstar late this season. With the always loud Richard Sherman sure to be in tight coverage on one side of the field and leader Kwon Alexander mostly recovered from his injuries, Rodgers will have to continue to turn back the clock to give the Packers a chance.
OFD Predicts: The Packers have been really good in LaFleur’s first year, and look well set-up for next season, but the Week 12 game showed clear talent disparities between these two teams. It won’t be that much of a blowout, but unless Aaron Rodgers has a time machine to 2011, the Niners defense should simply be too much. Look for the Niners to take an early lead and coast to the Super Bowl. Niners over Packers, 31-17.
