With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Denver Nuggets
Conference: Western
Wins O/U: 51.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Last Year’s Record: 54-28
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): W Barton, M. Beasley, B. Bol, T. Craig, J. Grant*, G. Harris*, J. Hernangomez, N. Jokic*, P. Millsap*, J. Murray*, M. Plumlee, M. Porter Jr., J. Vanderbilt
Key Offseason Moves: Traded for J. Grant, Drafted B. Bol, Lost T. Lyles
Overall Summary: Everyone seems to forget that the second best-record in the Western Conference last year belonged to the Nuggets. While teams like the Clippers (Kawhi and Paul George), the Jazz (Mike Conley), the Lakers (Anthony Davis), and the Rockets (Russell Westbrook) added stars, Denver instead chose to embrace continuity. A team that played two rounds in the playoffs last year lost exactly 8 total minutes of their playoff rotation in Trey Lyles – not an issue with two big wings in Jerami Grant and Michael Porter Jr. making their Nuggets debuts this season. The most incredible thing is that I went this far in the summary without mentioning the All-NBA superstar center in Nikola Jokic, the emerging backcourt duo of Gary Harris and Jamal Murray, Other than Millsap, the core of this team is extremely young, with last season‘s team representing the eighth youngest team in playoff history. Grant fits snugly within the team’s age band – he is 25, while Jokic, Harris, and Murray are all currently 24. A team that easily outperformed expectations last year will look to remain contenders in a very competitive team in the West, and many signs are positive. Most teams that greatly outperform expectations have great injury fortune – this was not the case with the Nuggets, who saw Harris, Millsap, and Barton, three of their Game 1 starters, miss extended periods of time – luckily, players like Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley, and Monte Morris stepped up. This is why I believe that the Nuggets should not decline greatly due to worse injury luck – and even if they do suffer injuries, they have the depth to withstand them throughout the grueling regular season schedule. With the addition of former #1 high school recruit Michael Porter Jr. from two years of injuries, there is no reason to expect the Nuggets to be worse than last year’s squad, and I expect them to again lock up a top 2 seed in the West this season.
Verdict: This is one of my favorite bets this season; take the over. Nikola Jokic will continue to be one of the best players in the NBA, and the supporting cast is one of the deepest in the NBA, which is helpful over the 82 game regular season schedule. Furthermore, Denver has an implicit advantage that comes with being at altitude – their home court advantage over time is larger than any other team’s. Last year, they had the NBA’s best home record at 34-7, even with only the 4th best record overall. Even if you assume slight regression with a home record of 32-9, the Nuggets would only have to go 20-21 on the road, coincidentally their road record last year. I project the Nuggets to win 56-26 – given that, the only struggle for Denver fans will be deciding which nugs they are highest on.
