With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Golden State Warriors
Conference: Western
Wins O/U: 47.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
Last Year’s Record: 57-25
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): A. Burks, W. Cauley-Stein*, S. Curry*, J. Evans, D. Green*, D. Lee, K. Looney, A. McKinnie*, E. Paschall, J. Poole, G. Robinson III, D. Russell*, A. Smailagic, O. Spellman, K. Thompson
Key Offseason Moves: Traded K. Durant for D. Russell, Traded A. Igoudala, Signed W. Cauley-Stein, Lost D. Cousins, S. Livingston, Lost J. Bell, Signed A. Burks, Signed G. Robinson III, Traded D. Jones for O. Spellman, Lost Q. Cook, Drafted J. Poole, A. Smailagic, and E. Paschall
Overall Summary: The list of offseason moves tells all for the Golden State Warriors in their first year playing in San Francisco. While the inner circle of the Warriors dynasty remains intact (Curry, Green, Thompson), Kevin Durant is gone, along with critical vets Andre Igoudala and Shaun Livingston. Worse yet, Klay Thompson looks unlikely to play until after the All-Star Break. Wounded Warriors indeed. However, they made a number of crafty moves as well, picking up all-star DeAngelo Russell by making the Durant deal a sign-and-trade with Brooklyn. While Russell cannot play the kind of defense that Klay does, he should help replace some of the lost offense of Klay and Durant. They picked up the underrated Willie Cauley-Stein, the former starting center for the nearby Sacramento Kings. They also filled out their roster with younger, high-upside guys, changing their identity from a veteran championship dynasty to a sleeker, younger team still positioned to be a title contender. In fact, Steph Curry is now the elder statesmen – the only 30+ year old on the team, and besides Udonis Haslem with Miami, the longest tenured player with one team. Curry (and Thompson and Green) may be the last of the Dirk brand, playing a whole career with one team. However, Golden State may have to suffer a transitional year before reemerging with a healthy Klay Thompson next year.
Verdict: This feels impossible to bet for me. The West is obviously stacked – and with Thompson out, the roster is very shallow. If Thompson’s rehab takes longer than expected, or if Curry or Green gets injured, then Golden State may ease off the gas to ensure their health for the following season. With the line being +110, that makes the under extremely tempting. However, I just can’t pull the trigger on that bet. Betting against the Warriors feels like betting against the Patriots or the Spurs – winners do not go gently into the night. This is a pure stay-away, find value elsewhere on the board. I project the Warriors to finish 48-34.
