Nikola Jokic is a man of contradictions. He looks like a Bond villain – a seven foot tall Serbian with a square jaw who still wrestles with his elder brothers – brothers who occasionally curse in Serbian at the refs when they dislike the calls on the court. His usual straight-face doesn’t make much sense for someone nicknamed “Joker”. Yet he has become one of the faces of the NBA, alongside other international stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, and Luka Doncic. Unlike the others, all first round picks, Jokic was not expected to be great coming out of Mega Belgrade, being drafted with the 41th pick, likely as a result at being over ideal playing weight (it is said that he played at nearly 300 pounds in Serbia). Yet last season, Jokic finished 4th in MVP voting, the highest finish ever for a second round draft pick. His still stocky frame belies balletic feet and impossibly soft touch. Those same hands that seem to catch every basketball thrown his way have had meme-generating failures in handling mics. Yet this frame and these moves obscure what makes Jokic such a valuable basketball player – his immense basketball IQ. The man who may already be the best passing big man of all time has helped his Denver Nuggets become legitimate title contenders – and inspired this inside look at Nikola Jokic.
Drafted in 2014, Jokic looked more promising than his draft position might indicate from the get-go, but often was stuck playing behind Bosnian center Jusuf Nurkic for the Nuggets. During the 2016-2017 season, he won the starting job, and in February, Nurkic was traded to the now-rival Portland Trailblazers. With less worrying about playing time, and more about just playing, Jokic began to show signs of the player he would become today.
To look at what makes Jokic so special requires examining how the center position has evolved this decade. For much of NBA history, centers were expected to make their money near the rim on both ends of the floor – dunking and posting on offense, swatting shots on defense. Teams like the early 2010s Indiana Pacers had centers like Roy Hibbert – domineering presences inside. As the pace and space era started, and teams chased more efficient shots, they started asking for different skills from their centers. 7 footers were now required to shoot threes, be solid from the free throw line, and be able to defend out to the perimeter, whether against other 7 foot sharpshooters or on switches. It was in this emerging environment where Jokic became a starter.
Jokic possesses all these attributes and more. He has shot above 80% from the free throw line in every season of his NBA career, and can also shoot the three – his career mark is around 35%. The amazing thing about his breakout season last year is that he shot the ball quite poorly from beyond the arc – less than 31% – so positive regression actually could up his points per game even if there are no other improvements in efficiency elsewhere on the court or a change in shot volume. While his lack of verticality makes him a below average shot-blocker, the aforementioned basketball IQ allows him to get in the correct position to disrupt offenses. Despite the eye test perhaps grading Jokic as a below-average defender, advanced analytics from basketball-reference actually have Jokic as an above average defender during every year of his NBA career. This year, he actually led the Nuggets in steals – a testament to his defensive positioning and quick hands. Furthermore, Jokic has continued to be an excellent rebounder, averaging almost 11 a game in 2018-2019, another important skill for big men. However, all of these skills are merely the surface of what makes Jokic such a dynamic player.
Jokic has become an MVP candidate because of one defining, extraordinary skill; his passing. For most of basketball history, as discussed above, centers were siloed into a limited skill-set; however, this didn’t only apply to that position. Indeed, for much of this same history, the same guys brought the ball up the court most of the time; the point guards. Generally the smallest players on the floor, they were responsible for setting up their teammates to score – usually not scoring so much themselves. Positions were defined, roles were static. This began to loosen this decade, changed most substantially by the King, Lebron James. While forerunners like Grant Hill and Chris Webber started to show that bigger guys could be effective floor generals, Lebron displayed the possibilities for the whole NBA to see. Lebron could leverage his athleticism to get to places in the middle of the floor, and then his height to see the best possible pass to make. Instead of the little guys setting up the big guys, it was inverted – guys like Lebron could find smaller shooters in the corners or lithe guards slicing to the rim for a layup. It more than worked – Lebron would make EIGHT straight finals out of the East, the longest streak for any player not on the 1960s Celtics. Jokic would come into a league not trying to push players into a specific position, but instead looking for players that transcend these roles by being positionless. Guys such as Draymond Green, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are all nominally forwards, yet constantly are bringing the ball up and distributing to their teammates. In comes the brilliant Jokic, doing all this and more.
Jokic subverts the nominal positions in basketball even more than Lebron. At 7 feet tall, Jokic has the size and the ability to bang inside like a center. He can shoot from both distance and the free throw line; and his defense is better than most think. However, Jokic transcends all these labels by being a point guard in a center’s body. His passing is legendary – some of his full court passes have led to him being dubbed the best quarterback in Denver (not so difficult, given that Joe Flacco is starting for the Broncos this year).
This passing ability allows the Denver Nuggets to run a really cool set of plays; specifically, inverted screens and picks. Most teams can create mismatches by having their big men screen for their ball handlers, forcing the defense to either fight through the pick to maintain defensive matchups, or switch, allowing the offense size mismatches that they can take advantage of – a big guy guarding a small guy can get beaten with quickness, whereas in the reverse situation, the bigger guy can bully the smaller defender inside. The Nuggets can do this in reverse – with Jokic as the ball handler and point guard Jamal Murray as the screener – creating a world of options. If the defenders sag, Jokic can pull up for three, or if they lunge out, Murray can knife to the rim for an easy layup. Even if switched correctly, Murray can dart to the corner for a three – his lightning fast release allowing him to shoot over pursuing defenders. These plays utilize Jokic’s skills perfectly – if he has time to survey and make decisions, the defense has already lost the possession.
Jokic is not loud like Joel Embiid, or freakishly athletic like Giannis. He’s not in a big market like the Lakers, Clippers, and Nets superstars, and unlike the many team USA players dropping out of the FIBA world championships, he is proud to play for Serbia, the team he helped lead to the silver medal in the 2016 Olympics. He has taken a long journey from Sombor, in the north of Serbia, through the second round of the NBA draft, to find a home in the Rocky Mountains. His stardom itself is a contradiction, a foreign, quiet, plodding center becoming a LeaguePass phenomenon. Despite the lack of hype, or perhaps because of it, Nikola Jokic is now a serious MVP candidate and one of the defining players of this upcoming NBA season.
