We’ve reached the second weekend of the playoffs, when the true Super Bowl Contenders emerge. We lost all-time greats Tom Brady and Drew Brees in upsets, but are left with 8 teams, and four home favorites. OFD will preview all four games and offer some predictions as to what will happen.
Saturday
Vikings v Niners
4:35 PM
The Vikings slew one of the two NFC favorites in New Orleans last weekend, with Kirk Cousins outlasting Drew Brees. Can they do it again? Cousins silenced some doubters last weekend, but beating San Francisco would cement his reputation as the elite passer he was this year. Adam Thielen’s availability is key, as he injured his ankle in practice this week. Thielen alongside Stefon Diggs is one of the preeminent recieving duos in the league, and Dalvin Cook is coming off a Pro Bowl season. Cousins has the weapons necessary to shock the world for the second straight week. The SF defense they will face will seek to blunt these with scheme and talent, as Robert Salah will use Nick Bosa, the best rookie defender, to pressure Cousins and will count on Richard Sherman to shut down whichever receiver he is lined up against. Minnesota’s offense has been much worse in games played outdoors, giving the Niners another advantage as they play in the Bay.
When San Francisco has the ball, count on Kyle Shanahan to scheme for Jimmy Garoppolo to have success. Shanahan is elite at exploiting defenses with his adjustments, which has been a key reason the Niners have home-field advantage after their defense faltered in the second half of the season. George Kittle is a game breaker both blocking and receiving the ball. If you look at PFF player ratings, Kittle was the highest rated player in the NFL this year, regardless of position, and has been playing like prime Gronk over the last month. With Deebo Samuel and Emmanual Sanders outside, Jimmy G will have multiple options when forced to throw. The Niners will rely on their platoon backfield of Matt Brieda, Raheem Mostert, and Tevin Coleman to establish the play-action game, as they will be facing a fearsome defense. Danielle Hunter is one of the best pass-rushers in the game, but the Minnesota safeties are what really make their defense tick. The combination of Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith makes plays all over the field, and their ability to cause turnovers should come into play against a sometimes careless Jimmy G.
If Thielen were healthy, this would be a tougher pick, but even if he plays, he will be compromised, and the defense can focus on Diggs. The home-field advantage will prove key, with the outdoor aspect, and despite Minnesota’s dominance against tight ends, Kittle will rise above it. I predict that Shanahan’s scheming ability will make the difference with San Francisco driving for key touchdowns in the second half.
OFD Predicts: Niners 27 – Vikings 21
Titans v Ravens
8:15 PM
Lamar Jackson is the MVP, and it isn’t particularly close. His running from the QB position is both record-breaking and awe-inspiring, but his passing efficiency was also excellent, and he easily led the Ravens to the best record in the league. Ignoring their other weapons, like Mark Ingram and Mark Andrews, has also led opposing defenses astray. However, the real game-changer for the Ravens has been trading for Marcus Peters in the middle of the season. Strengthening a secondary that already had stars in Marlon Humphrey and Earl Thomas has significantly bolstered the defense as a whole, and they looked like a top-5 unit for the second half of the season. If both offense and defense are clicking, this Baltimore team is a juggernaut that has its sights on the Lombardi Trophy.
However, they face off against one of the more surprising teams and stories left this season. Since taking over for Marcus Mariota midway through the season, Ryan Tannehill has been one of the best players in the NFL. Throwing often to rookie AJ Brown, the two have been absolutely dynamic, with Brown looking like the newest star receiver in the league. The key, however, has been former Heisman winner Derrick Henry, who has shown the value of a great running back in the modern era. He led the NFL is rushing yards this season, and almost single-handedly destroyed the New England dynasty last week, carrying the ball 34 times (an NFL high this season) and bludgeoning multiple Pats defenders. He was so good that the Titans 2-minute offense consisted of getting Henry the ball, full-stop. This Titans offense is very balanced and can score with the best of them.
Unfortunately, the Titans defense isn’t quite as good, and with the loss of the underrated Jeon Brown, I don’t think they can stop the Ravens explosiveness.
OFD predicts: Ravens 31 – Titans 21.
Sunday
Texans v Chiefs
3:05 PM
The Chiefs-Texans game is my favorite of the weekend, and mainly because it’s an incredible quarterback matchup. Draftmates and friends Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson will duel in front of a national audience, and with weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce on one side and DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller on the other, expect some fireworks in Kansas City. Reigning MVP Mahomes and Andy Reid came within a coin flip of the super bowl last year, and Houston will likely have a tough time trying to vanquish them in Arrowhead.
The difference between last year’s Chiefs team and this one appears to be the defense. New coordinator Steve Spagnoulo has had late season magic with this unit, and they are a top 10 unit by DVOA. Tyrann Mathieu has helped the pass defense step up, though the loss of rookie Juan Thornhill in week 17 could hurt. On the other side, the Texans were mediocre at best this season, especially once leader JJ Watt went out with a torn pec. However, he rallied back to play last week, and his ability to change games in a single play is one of the few potential paths to a Houston win.
Houston needed some incredibly questionable decisions by Josh Allen and a literal miracle play from Watson to even be playing this week. While the Texans won the matchup in Week 6, Mahomes was hobbled. This time, the Chiefs shouldn’t have to sweat nearly as much.
OFD predicts: Chiefs 31 – Texans 17
Seahawks v Packers
6:40 PM
This is a matchup of what constitutes the old guard, at least in terms of quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are the two QBs remaining who have won Super Bowls, or even been to them. Both lead offenses that have been anemic at times. The parallels between the teams don’t end there – both had point differentials indicating the teams were not as good as their records and both had great records in one score games. The difference here lies in relative health. Once you get to the playoffs, no team is truly healthy, but key injuries seem to be affecting the Seahawks more. After losing backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to injury, Seattle is relying on Marshawn Lynch to provide a spark less than a month off his couch – which is a strategy perhaps more fit for 2010 than 2020. The line he’s running behind is also hampered by injuries, with 4 of the 5 nominal starters questionable to play, and limited even if they do so. DK Metcalf had an incredible game against the Eagles, but that may have to do more with a depleted secondary than anything Metcalf actually did. Meanwhile, the other Aaron (Aaron Jones) and the Packers offensive line are ready to chew up yardage and time on the clock.
Both defenses have been up and down this year. Za’Darius and Preston Smith are among the best pass rushers and have formed a fearsome duo nicknamed the Smith Brothers. Meanwhile, Jaire Alexander has blossomed in the secondary and become a lockdown corner. On the other side, Seattle has stalwart Bobby Wagner, who led the league in tackles. JaDaveon Clowney always makes his presence known, to the chagrin of Eagles faithful last weekend.
At the end of the day, I think health and home field will be the deciding factor. I expect a low scoring game, not unlike Seattle’s slog last week.
OFD predicts: Packers 24 – Seahawks 17.
