With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Conference: Western
Wins O/U: 54.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Last Year’s Record: 48-34
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): Patrick Beverley*, Paul George*, J. Green, M. Harkless, M. Harrell, M. Kabengele, K. Leonard*, T. Mann, R. McGruder, J. Motley, P. Patterson, J. Robinson, L. Shamet*, L. Williams, I. Zubac*
Key Offseason Moves: Signed K. Leonard, Traded S. Gilgeous-Alexander and D. Gallinari for P. George, Traded for M. Harkless, Drafted M. Kabengele and T. Mann, Lost G. Temple
Overall Summary: The Clippers were undoubtedly the big winners of the offseason, and enter this season as the most likely team to walk away with the championship trophy. As many suspected was possible, they were able to convince Kawhi Leonard to return home to Southern California, but they weren’t done yet, pulling off an absolute blockbuster trade to pair Leonard with Paul George. While they had to give up dynamic young point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the trade with OKC, pairing two dominant two-way wings is just too scintillating not to make the trade. Furthermore, besides Gilgeous-Alexander and scoring wing Danilo Galinari (also in the trade), the Clippers were able to retain all of the key players from last year’s playoff team. Sixth man of the year Lou Williams and fellow nominee Montrezl Harrell return to run back their awesome bench combination, Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet constitute a modern NBA backcourt, and Ivica Zubac, absolutely stolen from the Lakers a season ago, looks likely to remain the starting center. This team is so potentially deep that Maurice Harkless, a starter on a Western Conference Finals Portland Trailblazers team last season, doesn’t even seem like he will be one of the first two guys off the bench (though he provides great coverage when the Clippers rest George and/or Leonard). I even like the first round draft pick, Kabengele, as he showed a ton of raw promise at Florida State. However, before people look at this team as the next Warriors, especially in the regular season, there are complications to consider. Kawhi Leonard may well be the best player in the game at this point, but by the end of the Finals last year, he was noticeably hobbled, and this after only playing 60 games during the regular season. The injury that led to Leonard leaving San Antonio originally is suspected to be degenerative – meaning that Leonard will likely never be fully healthy. Knowing this, there seems little chance that Kawhi plays more than 60-65 games this year, as the Clippers know that his health in the playoffs is paramount. Paul George actually has a more pressing injury situation currently, coming off of surgery to repair his torn left labrum. He is projected to miss the first six weeks of the season, which if exact, would be 22 games missed – meaning the maximum number of games George could possibly play is 60. Therefore, while the Clippers may well be the best team in the league at full strength, the injury concerns with their two stars means they often won’t be playing with their full complement of pieces.
Verdict: I’m going to go against much of the consensus and recommend taking the under. While I think this is the most promising playoff team in basketball, I just don’t believe they will have their normal lineup in enough games in the regular season to reach 55 wins. The Clippers have championship goals this year and will not let a pursuit of regular season dominance potentially increase their vulnerability in the playoffs. I predict that the Clippers will finish 52-30.
