The Players Championship is here! While the West Coast Swing is considered the true beginning of the new season in golf, the Players is generally considered the start of the Big Tournaments… aka the Majors. Yes, there’s a lot of talk about whether the Players is the “fifth major” and while obviously it’s not a major (just ask Tiger… he’d probably have figured out a way to play this week if it were) I do consider it the first truly important tournament of the year. Not only does it have the best field in the world, but it’s the biggest tournament before the Masters, is played at a truly iconic course, TPC Sawgrass, and always promises a fun show, often with golf trying out some new technology. Since we’re super excited, we thought we’d return to OFD to help ourselves (and any readers) out with what to expect this weekend in terms of performance, the course, the technology and of course, the gambling.
The Course / Technology
Often what makes a golf course famous, is a certain stretch of holes that has the opportunity to change the course (pun intended) of the tournament. Ever heard of Amen Corner (holes 11-13) at Augusta? TPC Sawgrass has something similar with holes 16 – 18, the most famous of those three being the iconic par-3 17th with the island green. It’s traditionally one of the most treacherous holes in all of golf. The highest number of golf balls in the water was in 2007, where 93 shots ended up in the drink, including 50 in just the first round. In recent years, round totals were 69 in 2017, 54 in 2018, 45 in 2019. We’ll see how many take the plunge this year, and if any clubs follow.
While the 17th is awesome to watch, evoking true arena-like vibes from the rowdy crowds, the onlookers also get a show on the long par-5 16th. The tree and bunker on the left front side of the green always convinces people to tempt fate, and a key eagle on Sunday could make all the difference. Finally, the 18th provides that last bit of hope (or anxiety depending on who you are) and always leads to an entertaining finish with a tough par four that’s lined with water on the left side from tee to green. The water is definitely in play on both the drive and the approach, so there’s potential trouble on every shot.
A course as fun as this with a field as exciting as we have in 2020 makes hard-core fans (such as ourselves) want to fully immerse ourselves in the tournament, especially if you have a little money on some players whose names aren’t Brooks or Rory. The tour is introducing a new technology this shot that will allow us to watch Every Shot Live. The Tour has promised us every shot by every player which will take the power of 98 cameras, including 18 unmanned on tee boxes, 18 manned on greens, wireless cameras on the fairways, and more.
There are a few questions surrounding this. Mainly, how does this impact the normal broadcast? Golf broadcasts are notoriously fraught, with the issue of commercials and montages, etc. during crucial shots or lack of exposure to not-as-famous players being heavily criticized. We will be paying for Every Shot Live this week but I assume many people will not. The older generation of golf fans may not even know how to access Every Shot Live (I know there’s no way my parents could figure it out). So how will the normal NBC broadcast use the new tech? Or will it just be business as usual for them? It’ll be interesting to find out.
People like us? We can’t wait. Players like Max Homa, who get very little air time, but matter a lot to us, will get every single one of their shots broadcast. I’m curious as to how exactly it will work – will you be able to watch 3-4 players on split screen? Follow specific holes? A group or two groups, like normal PGA Tour Live? Once we figure out exactly what the optimal way to watch is, the viewing experience will be awesome.
Recent Performance / Power Rankings
We’ve had just over four months of tournament performance to witness players succeed (or not) in the 2019-2020 wrap-around season. So far, the best player this season has been clear. That’s right, you guessed it: Rory McIlroy. In the 6 tournaments Rory has played in since October, he has 1 win and 5 top 5s. The man is primed for another win and he loves the course… just ask him how he did last year (hint: he won). Anyone who gives another answer for who the front runner here is, hasn’t been paying attention. However, given that no one has ever repeated as Players Champion, there are definitely others to take a close look at this week. These include Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm, two players that can win any week they show up at the course. Patrick Cantlay, recently coming off a deviated septum surgery, shouldn’t be counted out, as he’s won at courses that play similarly to TPC Sawgrass. Webb Simpson, always playing solid and a former champion here, is another name that’s hard to ignore. Finally, Sung-jae Im, the emerging superstar, will go for his third straight Top-3, having won his first event at the Honda and following that up by being one of four golfers under par at Bay Hill.
Pairings
These are the featured groups for the first two days of this tournament and my goodness; they are a golf fan’s dream.
Let’s tackle these one at a time. First, the Players put the Big Dogs together: Rory, Rahm and Brooks are numbers 1, 2 and 3 in the world right now, in that order. Brooks has spent the past 6 months talking shit about Rory. Brooks started by saying he doesn’t consider Rory a threat because Rory hasn’t won a Major since Brooks came on the scene, which is patently ridiculous because Brooks just wasn’t good enough to “be on the scene” with Rory even 5 years ago. Brooks recently lost his #1 place in the world ranking to Rory but doubled down recently by saying he isn’t here to make friends and doesn’t even have Rory’s phone number. This very clear rivalry, which Brooks essentially created for himself, will be extremely fun to watch. Plus, Rahm is just a beast and has a temper so it’ll be interesting to watch him play with Rory and Brooks.
Then we have Rose, Xander and Adam Scott who I (Rachel) call the sweet attractive ones who seem to always be hanging out just under the radar, priming them for the kill without anyone realizing it. I love these three I have a feeling they’ll all feed off each other… whether that’s positive or negative we’ll have to wait and see. Weirdly, Schauffele and Rose have played poorly in 2020 but will look to turn it around in Ponta Vedra.
Next up DJ, Webb and Mickelson. Webb famously won this tournament by 4 strokes winning handily wire-to-wire in 2018, so we know he loves this course. DJ and Mickleson are great personalities that can often be… shall we say volatile. I’d love to see either go on a heater this week. Also, DJ and Phil both have their brothers caddying for them – a fun little piece of trivia.
Next are the Spring Break Boys!!! Speith, JT and Rickie are paired together this week, showcasing three of the best friends in golf, and also how the three have grown apart in their golf games. Rickie has won this tournament before and JT has been playing out of his mind recently. We truly miss Jordan Speith being good at golf and hope maybe support from his best friends will give him a boost in this tournament, but aren’t holding our breaths. Please drive it in the fairway, Jordan.
New kids on the block: Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland. All three now have wins on the Tour in their first full year out as PGA tour players. OFD is most invested in Hovi, but Wolff and Morikawa are super fun to watch. Morikawa and Hovi have been playing well recently, but Wolff has been lacking, with his control not quite matching up to his power. We’ll see which of the three finishes best in their first big tournament that they are headlining.
We aren’t positive why they paired Reed, Matsuyama and Cantlay together. They all have different styles of play, although all three are great ball strikers. There also isn’t much of a social media angle. The Tour probably just needed to find somewhere to slot Reed that would cause the least drama, though with Patrick, Justine, and Kessler, anything is possible.
The Old Boys: Stenson, Garcia and Kuch. Garcia and Kuchar have had beef in the past year which was pretty obviously Garcia’s fault. I love that the Players are fueling existing feuds.
Similar to Reed/Matusyama/Cantlay, it’s unclear why DeChambeau, Im and Woodland are paired together. But Sung-jae is absolutely electric to watch and I’m looking forward to him potentially carding another top 5. DeChambeau is also tracking upwards… and I guess they had to find a way to slot in Nice Guy, U.S. Open champ Woodland.
The Gambling
Matchups
Sam: This author pleads the fifth on his capital allocations at this event, but I will highlight 4 matches that the books have offered that seem to offer value.
Fitzpatrick v Day (-143): While Matthew Fitzpatrick has been playing well, with the only round in the 60s last weekend, this bet is as much about Jason Day as anything. He withdrew from Bay Hill last Friday, and his injury history is always a question. While Day has good history on this course, this bet has value because of the chance of Day withdrawing on Thursday or Friday, which would be an auto-win.
Cantlay v Matsuyama (-110): As mentioned above, we think Cantlay is a really good bet this week. All parts of his game are solid, something that can’t be said for Matsuyama’s putting. While Hideki is an excellent player, consistency remains an issue, and taking the consistent player in a match is often the right play.
Im v Matsuyama (+108): Not sure why Sung-jae is an underdog here. He’s coming in on a heater, and his playing profile shows one of the best players in the world, even if his reputation has not quite ascended to that point. With Matsuyama discussed above, it doesn’t seem right that the more consistent player is the underdog, and as such, take the value where you see it.
Leishman v. Hatton (-101): A redux of the final pairing at Bay Hill, this line also seems off to me. Hatton did hold off Leishman down the stretch last weekend, but that ignores that fact that Leishman actually shot better on Sunday. Hatton is also likely to suffer an emotional let-down after the adrenaline of his win last week. Leishman ranks 7th in the FedEx Cup with a 1st and 2nd already this season, and should not be an underdog against Hatton, and yet considering the vig, he is, making him a must-bet.
DFS
Rachel: The way I always do FanDuel (a DFS site) is pick the top 3 players I think have the best shot and then make 2 educated guesses on lower level players, and make a less than educated guess on my 6th pick. I feel like I do just okay in FanDuel. My line up for the week is: Rory McIlroy ($12,200), Justin Thomas ($11,900), Sungjae Im ($10,400), Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,200), Max Homa ($8,500), and Sung Kang ($7,800). Rory, JT are two favorites this week and Im, Fitz and Homa were all picks based on recent performance. I chose Kang as my lowest value spot due to his recent performance as well. I’m surprised at the low value they’re placing on Im and Fitz here, and as explained above, think they have great chances here this week.
Overall
Rachel: So far I’m looking to target an overall win for Rory (even though his odds are horrible), Sung-Jae and Bryson. All three of these players had top tier finishes at Bay Hill last week, despite the rest of the field experiencing extreme trouble. I think based on course history and value, taking guys like Webb or even Snedeker for Top 10s is a smart choice that I’ll probably be seeing through. Other long shots I like for small bets here and there include Harris English, Emiliano Grillo and Joel Dahmen. You may not really recognize these names but these are players who are trending upwards who have the ability to backdoor a top 10. I feel silly for not mentioning Rahm, but I have a feeling Sam will discuss Rahm plenty.
Sam: While betting against Rory seems silly, I really like Cantlay, Bryson, and Rahm this week. Bryson and Rahm are now known for their power, but they also strike the ball really purely, key on this course. Cantlay has worked on his short-game and his bogey avoidance should be key. Overall, I’m really excited to see how Every Shot Live works, and watch the best field in golf. The only thing that’s predictable? We’ll see something no one saw coming.
