With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Orlando Magic
Conference: Eastern
Wins O/U: 41.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Last Year’s Record: 42-40
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): A-F. Aminu, D. Augustin*, M. Bamba, K. Birch, M. Carter-Williams, E. Fournier*, M. Frazier Jr., M. Fultz, A. Gordon*, J. Isaac*, W. Iwundu, A. Jefferson, C. Okeke, T. Ross, N. Vucevic*
Key Offseason Moves: Signed A-F. Aminu, Drafted C. Okeke
Overall Summary: Hmmm. It’s somewhat difficult to think about what to say here. This is a very similar team to last year’s playoff outfit, but that team finished barely over .500, and lost to the champion Raptors in 5 games in the first round. They re-signed key players like all-star Nikola Vucevic and important bench players Terrence Ross and Khem Birch, and lost no one of note. They even signed Al-Farouq Aminu, a nominal starter on last year’s Trailblazers, who made it to the Conference Finals. Yet, I have a hard time seeing the Magic improving or even treading water. I like first-round draft pick Chuma Okeke, but he suffered a torn ACL in March, so it’s hard to see him making a major impact rookie year. The two main factors that I think will drag the Magic to a mediocre season are regression from their top players and the inefficient allotment of minutes. The regression I am worried about comes specifically from two players – Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross. Ross is the easier topic – he shot and scored the ball extremely well and efficiently last year – and his career doesn’t portend an ability to repeat that. Vucevic is a more complicated question. He is a talented player, with excellent passing, rebounding, and shooting for his position. However, last year represented a significant improvement from his normal – and I think it’s likely he regresses. With his average-at-best defense, Vucevic would no longer be an all-star level player, and the Magic would have a tough team returning to the playoffs and finishing above .500. I also think that the Magic will try to play Markelle Fultz and Mo Bamba more minutes than they should. Both are former lottery picks who the Magic are trying to turn into valuable NBA players, but both have frankly been bad in their NBA careers, and any minutes they spend on the floor are bad for the Magic.
Verdict: I would say that this is likely a stay-away, even though if forced to take a side, I would take the under. The East is just too weak to completely bet against a returning playoff team with massive incumbency from the previous season. That being said, the Magic are just mediocre – I project a record of 40-42.
