Throughout January, OFD will be looking at some of the positive surprises and disappointments among teams this NBA season. Stay tuned for the next four surprises and then five disappointments over the next couple weeks.
It’s a good thing there aren’t logs of every single one of my NBA predictions, right?? Oh.
One of the teams I thought had a chance to finish with the worst record in the league was the Memphis Grizzlies. The Western Conference was supposed to be far more competitive than the Eastern, and Memphis’ 3 most important players this year were rookies or in their second year. How could they keep up? While I thought their future would be bright, I thought it would be all struggles this season.
At this point of the season, my prediction of under 27.5 wins looks likely to be wrong, as the Grizzlies are 16-22 on the year. The last month or so has seen Memphis play better than that record, with a 10-8 record since December 1st, including wins over Miami, and at the Clippers and Thunder. In a weaker-than-expected bottom half of the Western Conference, Memphis sits half a game behind the Spurs for the 8th seed, something even the most optimistic of Memphis fans would not have believed before the season.
Much of the reason why has been the excellent play of the young franchise cornerstones. After creating greater expectations for himself with the Summer League MVP, Brandon Clarke has met or exceeded them with his heady defense, unexpectedly good shooting from 3, and general readiness for the NBA. Jaren Jackson Jr. has built on his wonderful rookie year, bombing threes at a rate among big men that is comparable to anyone but Karl-Anthony Towns. His defensive upside has flashed at times, but he needs to reduce his foul rate to reach his potential on that side of the ball.
The spacing provided by the two young big men and solid veteran Jonas Valanciunas has allowed Ja Morant to establish himself as the clear Rookie of the Year front runner. Morant has excelled in many areas this year, with nearly 40% 3 point shooting, nearly 80% free throw shooting, and over 6.5 assists a game. Morant has dazzled with his high-flying act (shoutout to nearly ending Kevin Love’s life) but has also shown poise for a point guard that’s only 20. With complementary big men, Morant looks like a future star in the league, and a leader of the next run in Memphis.
With their pick only protected from 1-6, and Memphis not appearing to be a bottom 6 team, there is no real reason for Memphis not to keep trying. With the young kids playing like this, the future is far closer than it appeared. Others like Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones, and DeAnthony Melton are playing excellent complementary roles around Morant and Jackson, and new coach Taylor Jenkins has clearly infused some energy into this team. While it seems unlikely that Memphis will actually make the playoffs, the fact that it’s even a conversation is quite an accomplishment.
