With the 2019-2020 NBA season fast approaching, Our First Draft is providing team previews for all 30 NBA teams. These are intended to inform the reader about important roster changes for all teams, as well as summarizing the outlook of the team ahead. This includes the Vegas Over/Under line, OFD’s recommendation on which side to take, as well as a projected record for the team.
Team: Indiana Pacers
Conference: Eastern
Wins O/U: 47.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Last Year’s Record: 48-34
Projected Roster (Projected Starters marked with asterisks): G. Bitadze, M. Brogdon*, A. Holiday, J. Holiday, A. Johnson, J. Lamb*, T. Leaf, T. McConnell, D. McDermott, N. Mitrou-Long, V. Oladipo, D. Sabonis*, E. Sumner, M. Turner*, T. Warren*
Key Offseason Moves: Signed M. Brogdon, Lost B. Bogdanovic, Signed J. Lamb, Lost T. Young, Traded for T. Warren, D. Collison retired, Drafted G. Bitadze, Lost C. Joseph, Lost W. Matthews
Overall Summary: The Pacers remain a steady, yet relatively uninteresting playoff team. After superstar Victor Oladipo went down with a quad tendon rupture last season, the Pacers finished with the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference for the second straight season. While they lost Bojan Bogdanovic, their best player once Oladipo was lost for the season, they traded for Malcolm Brogdon, former rookie of the year and a solid all-around player, who should be able to replicate most of what Bogdanovic provided, and better defense. Though Warren and Lamb were solid offseason additions, the loss of Collison, Joseph, Matthews, and Thad Young will hurt the Pacers, especially before Oladipo comes back (likely December or January). Young in particular will be a difficult loss – his defensive versatility was important in guarding players like Giannis and Pascal Siakam; a role no player on the current roster seems capable of. While the roster churn from last season and Oladipo’s injury situation are two things that stick out, an underrated subplot will be the Pacers attempting to play Sabonis and Turner at the same time. Myles Turner is the epitome of a modern NBA player – a fantastic shot blocker at the rim who can stretch out all the way to three point range – but he is oft-injured and has struggled to live up to his potential. Domantas Sabonis, the other piece in the Paul George-Victor Oladipo trade, is a good offensive big man with a variety of inside moves and a nifty midrange shot. While not slow on defense, he has neither the verticality nor the hands to be any better than average on the floor. If Sabonis and Turner can play together in lineups that also have enough spacing, a playoff crunch time lineup of Oladipo-Brogdon-Lamb-Sabonis-Turner could be quite formidable.
Verdict: I like the Pacers this season, but because of a combination of roster turnover and situation, I lean slightly towards the under. Teams with high levels of turnover in their rotation generally struggle out of the gate, and the Pacers replaced about half of theirs. Furthermore, the weakness of the East could actually work against them hitting the over – knowing that even a team in the mid-40s of wins will easily make the playoffs, the Pacers may be extra cautious with Oladipo. Therefore, I project the Pacers to finish with a record of 46-36.
